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Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom predicted By On-Chain Models

Manoj Nair



Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom

Rising volatility and market bearish sentiments are bearing heavily on the number one cryptocurrency in the world. BTC is continuing to struggle at the $20K level. The fate of Bitcoin and the crypto sector hang precariously on the U.S. Fed rate hike on September 21. Most financial experts are placing their hope on a 50bps hike, but the pessimist is betting on a 75bps hike with a worst-case scenario of a 100bps hike. If it happens, we can see another carnage, like in June 2022.

On-Chain Models Predict Possible Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom Formation

Realized price, Delta price, and Thermo price are some benchmarks that can predict Bitcoin’s (BTC) price bottom. The price movements also depend on various influences, such as technical and macroeconomic factors.

Bitcoin On-Chain Price Models. Source: CryptoQuant

One of the benchmarks widely used to estimate a Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom is the realized price. It is defined as the average price at which each Bitcoin in circulation last moved. In the past, Bitcoin has always bottomed below the realized price. Currently, the realized price is $21,592; if; if the price falls below, then other benchmarks are used.

In the past, BTC prices have bottomed at the Delta price in the 2015 and 2018 bear markets. The Delta price currently is $14,478. It is 28% below the present level, and BTC prices can fall below this.

The Thermo price is another benchmark that marks the Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom in 2011. This is the price at which BTC was mined when it came into existence. However, since the addresses holding BTC have increased significantly, BTC is not likely to fall to this level.

Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom Price Risks Tanking To Bottom Levels

The U.S. Fed rate rise is interlinked with August jobs data and the CPI data. Data from+ CME FedWatch Tool hints that a 75-bps rate hike probability is 67%. Also, Wall Street banks expect a 75-bps hike in September.

September has been a negative month for the U.S. equities and crypto markets.

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